unemtploimt is down, so why are the republicans smiles? let's play "hardball." good evening, i'm mike smir con nish from new york in chris matthe matthews. take all of the fac trs of who will win in november and they still won't be as important as the economy and the unemployment rate. the economy created 120,000 jobs last month and well below the last few months and well below

expectations while unemployment dropped to 8.1%. while republicans point to the numbers the democrats will point to the falling number. who will win? we will talk about it on this show. and romney blew his chance for an endorsement. those are a few of the nuggets from a new book of "inside the circus." and is there a new war on the women by democrats? we will have that debate. and did you wonder what it might be like to text with hillary clinton? it is viral and in the sideshow. and let me begin with the best thing of all that began this week. begin with the economy and the presidential race. john heilemann is the u.s. correspondent for "newsweek"

magazine, and we also have the author of "showdown" and both are political analysts. today, the unemployment rate down a notch with jobs added at 120,000 and even though they are head in the right direction, the numbers be fell short. this morning president obama expressed cautious optimism. >> we welcome today's news that businesses created another 121,000 jobs last month and the unemployment rate ticked down, but it is clear to every american that there will still be ups and downs along the way, and that we have a lot more work to do. >> the republicans reaction was far less charitable, because mitt romney said it is a troubling jobs report. and john boehner said that families and small businesses are still struggling to get by because of president obama's failed economic problems. john heilemann, do we make too much of the numbers?

in other words, something visceral or some feeling out there amongst the electorate which is more important than 8.2% as an unemployment rate or 7.2%? >> well, michael, the most important thing is the economy and the most important reflection of the economy is the picture on job growth, and the most important thing about both of the things is the trend. so if the economy is improving and even if it is improving a little bit, people get a sense of the numbers that we are making numbers and that is good for president obama and bad for mitt romney. if we are backing up, and the gains of the last couple of few months are suddenly heading in the wrong direction as the numbers today suggested which is to say much below expectation and half of what people expected and there a lot of forecasters who believe that q3 could be bad heading into the election and high gas prices inevitable this summer, and if the trend is in the wrong direction, bad news for president obama and good news for mitt romney. >> i want to come back the trends in a moment, because we have an interesting analysis to

share with you. let me talk to david corn and ask you if it is the subjective or the objective relative to the figures in the economy generally? >> well, if you are talking about the voters, it is the subjective that is most important, and it is how people feel. if you go back to the '92 campaign, and people will argue that the recession, that george h. we are session was over, but most people felt it wasn't, so it is how people feel that is go ing to dictate the voting in november and not what is happening on the ground which is hard to chaurp soapture with th statistics. we will have several of these reports between now and november, and what happens in september and october which gives people the final sense of where the economy is moving in the right direction or not, and that can be all determined don't forget by external circumstances like the japanese tsunami and the greek finances, and there are other things that can buffett the president's control

and economy. >> and while the unemployment is high at 8.2%, and the other side says, yes, but 25 straight months of job growth, let me turn to john heilemann's thought about trends. conventional wisdom still hold, it is the unemployment rate on election day that holds the fate. no u.s. president has won election with a jobless rate above 6% except for ronald reagan and it was 7.2% when he won re-election in november of 2004. but washington pollster who is a republican says that impressions of the economy are locked in the late spring of an election year, and it is that mindset they take into the booth. here are three examples of what we is referring. to in george h.w. bush's first and only term, the unemployment was leaning downward heading

into the election day, so voters would be willing to give him four more years, but with the crucial spring months that we have highlighted here, the unemployment rate was rising, and so according to his theory, that is what the voters took to polls. and same for jimmy carter, the unemployment was headed down leading into the election, but in the april, may, june springtime period, unemployment was rising and we know that he lost the bid despite a improving jobs pick chu. and now a president who won a second term, ronald reagan with a punishing unemployment rate topping 10% in the first term, because it was headed in the right direction, downward, and david corn, i know it sounds like a s.a.t. question, i know, but logic dictates that right now we are in the time sequence

that matters most post-labor day. >> yes, and also we live in a world where information is absorbed and chud ewed up and s out faster than those days so people's opinions are more likely to change than back in those days. and the weakness of ronald reagan shown as a candidate is equally important, and can overturn the issues. now the president has time to find the footing between now and november, and if not, the people will be judging the two men against the backdrop of what they believe may or may not be happening with the economy. >> john heilemann, does it make since to you that mr.mcenturf says it is happening since 1952? >> e yes, it does make since. i have spoken to doug who has done a study on the approval ratings for presidents, and he has looked at the trend lines of

the president's approval in the winter and spring of the election year matters more than what is happeningp that at the end the the year. so there is connection or causality or correlation between the two numberscht it is true. david is right, there is no question that in the media environment that we live in now, people do absorb things more quickly, but at the same time people are especially now thinking hard about the economy for four years of barack obama and for 3 1/2 years of barack obama's presidency. they have their views about where things are headed right now are being shaped. they are being formed. that is why the white house right now is hammering on mitt romney and paul ryan right now, because they know that the springtime leading into the summer where the summer is quiet with the olympics and other things going on in is mum mer, and th -- in the summer, and in is where the impressions are formed, and that is why they are trying to shore it up right now. >> thank you both for being with us. >> thank you, michael.

>> thank you. inside of the romney campaign, thep the advisers know he has an image probproblem, an they love to go negative. lots from inside of the campaigns. this is "hardball." [ shivering ] sorry. sore knee. blast of cold feels nice. why don't you use bengay zero degrees? it's the one you store in the freezer. gives that instant cold sensation. that's chilly. same medicated pain reliever used by physical therapists. and it lasts for hours. [ sigh of relief ] [ short breath ] [ longer breath ] [ short breath ] [ male announcer ] new bengay zero degrees. freeze and move on.

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welcome back to "hardball." it has been a long primary season for republicans who have watched a half doz ep front-runners coming and going and still standing is mitt romney an unnatural politician who has run a tight ship of operatives and many of whom love to take down the opponents. santorum, an gingrich and perry and the rest is compressed into a read called "inside the circus" from politico covering

the 2012 election. joining us from two gentlemen. you talk about the issue surrounding the romney campaign and an outside romney campaign adviser told you in the book they haven't been able to grapple with the central issue that they face as campaign which is in the absence of a candidate who has any poetry or any ability to connect on the emotional level how do you create a bond? if you are a supercharismatic candidate like john mccain, they ran without a bold agenda, because they have a more emotional and values way to connect to the voters, but this guy does not have it. he has the warmth of a wall street ceo. evan, essential he connect at some point for the voters say, i can't have a beer with him, but i think that he can turn the economy around. >> well, as you were saying at the top of the show, if the economy tanks and unemployment is way up, he can win by default, but sure, he's got to do better than he has done.

he has been a bad politician. he has to find some way to be and i don't like this word, but relatable, and some way to relate to voters, and they have not figured it out. they will try. you will see a lot more of romney telling the life story in how he has helped people, i am sure of that. >> and david, on jay leno the other night, david gregory was talking about what he thinks drives romney is at the core is his faith and yet he is reluctant to talk about it. what has been said behind closed doors of how to embrace the faith to use it as a means to allow people to see what is at his core? >> well, michael, one of the things that we first learned behind the scenes of the campaign to do this series of ebooks for random house is that they knew that mormonism would be a tough issue for him. he lives the faith and we know

that before a debate he and mrs. romney will step aside and say a little prayer, but they know that if they get into teaching theology into a campaign, they are way off of the message. to from the beginning they said that for people who attacked mormonism, they would be very tough on them, and they would label it bigotry and they would not let any attacks on mormonism slide, but they also weren't going to talk about it anymore than necessary. this is part of the dilemma that evan and i discovered that they can't really decide how much as one adviser said to open up the kimono, and how much to show of mitt romney. a debate of too scripted or not scripted enough. so as evan mention ed ed in the coming days we will see him doing more. we will see a sort of this is your life for mitt romney. going around the country, and showing his life experiences in an effort to get people to relate to hip, because in the end, we vote for people that we like. >> and here is another one of the revelations speaking of the hardball tactics used to destroy

candidates, but so adviser said, so there is a casket, but open up the guns and keep shooting. so they relish going negative. >> yes, one of them had been talking about his wife talking about a book of vampires and you have to dig them up and spread the ashes. part of it is not to have a winning negative, because they are a good at it. they have run some very good negative ads and outspent the opponents and ran negative ads, but look for the negative campaign ads this fall. >> and michaelk you report in the book, there is no romney research on santorum a couple of days out from iowa and he completely took them by surprise. >> well, he took everybody by surprise. i don't think that you and i thought that rick santorum was exactly going to be the

republican redeemer, but he came out of iowa with his head of steam, and the romney campaign had to adapt to that quickly. also with gingrich, they didn't think that he would be the threat that he was either, and so they took their foot off his throat as one adviser said to me, as he came out of new hampshire, and they got beat in south carolina. so the night of mitt romney's big win in florida, i said to one of his folks outside of the victory speech, i said, so, are we done with newt gingrich and can you let go of him? and they said, no, he has been dead before so they want to make sure he is good and dead. >> and this is from "inside of the circus" and this had everybody wondering what is going won rick perry and here is a refresher. >> we are kind of into the slogans, man, and it is like, live free or die, and they print any more money in washington,

gold is going to be good, and take your deionings off and send it in, and the good news is that plan i shared with you doesn't force the granite state to expand your tax footprint, if you know what i mean. like 9% expansion. [ laughter ] >> evan, an explanation as to what behavior? >> well, i'm not sure. we talked to somebody who before the debate was down in the men's room in hanover, new hampshire, and perry came to the door saying "i have been working on the railroad" and he was still singing away, and who knows. the story was that he had a bad back, and really bad back and he was on pain medication as anybody would be, and two hours is a long time to stand at the podium, and, you know, he may have been just a little bit too much pain medication. >> and so in your book inside of the circus, you also portray callista gingrich as being, i don't know if controlling is the right word, but exhibiting a lot of influence the campaign and

concerned about the way in which she is represented or depicted. evan, can you speak to that? >> well, one tof the people we talked to, mike and i had dinner with, is maintenance, and a lot of the callista maintenance going on in the campaign and taking care of her. she likes to travel first class and come home on the weekend and one of the key weekends she was smelling the cherry blossoms with newt instead of campaigning. and the next day she wanted to -- she plays an instrument in the one of the cathedrals here. you know, they cater to her. now, that not such a bad thing, because you have a, you know, help the candidate's wife, but i think that as candidate's wife goes, she is controlling. >> did she photo shop or play a role in the photo shopping in the photos in the book as well this is. >> yes, michael. it is a continuing duty for one of the gingrich aides who said that no campaign resources went

it to% u there was work done on the photos, and it was a sign of the very candidate-focused control. they told us that all of the orders in that campaign come not from the campaign manager and not from headquarters, but from the bus. speaker gingrich calls in on a cell phone and tells them what he wants. we are told at one point, he was even calling in and this is any former campaign operative's nightmare that the candidate calling in saying he wanted more yard signs in michigan. it is unusual campaign that one of the people who works for us told it is like a think tank with yard signs and someone said, we can't get more yard signs, because we didn't pay for the last shipment yet. one of the few time s ths that e newt gingrich exploding and we hear him in anger in a meeting with the staff a couple of weeks ago, and that is the miracle of these ebooks that something that happened a couple of weeks ago and we made changes to the last moment. he found out that he was far in debt. he was saying that this is not

my fault, and whose fault is this? that is what he called a halftime meeting, and the chances that last week are halftime for the gingrich campaign are low. >> and the book is called "inside the circus" and good luck wit. >> have a happy holiday, and thank you, michael. >> ef wonder what it is like to text hillary clinton? well, you can follow me on twitter if you can figure out how to spell smerconish. you are watching "hardball."

back to "hardball" and now for the side show. first up, now that etch is cop vinced that mitt romney has clinched the nomination, some of the focus has turned to the veep

stakes, the game-changer herself, sarah palin suggested that romney go rogue and pickma >> if someone made that call and you would have to believe it would be the right fit. >> do you like mitt romney, and do you support the views and would you feel comfortable on a ticket with him? >> well, i have never been out on a dinner date with him if that is what you are asking me, so i don't know if i would like him. but we would have to sit down and discuss things. >> maybe romney should check with john mccain about that whole going rogue thing. and here is one to get women reeling going to the dry cleaners. it is more expensive to bring in a woman's blouse than a man's oxford shirt. aren't they the same things? well, today, president obama

acknowledged that wrinkle at the white house forum on women and the economy. >> yes, we have more to do, but no doubt that we have made progress. soon insurance companies will no longer be able to deny coverage on condition like pre-existing condition like breast cancer or charge them more because they are women. we haven't gotten on the dry cleaning thing yet. i know that is still -- [ laughter ] -- that is still frustrating, i'm sure. >> and now for friday fun, ever wonder what it would be like to text with hillary clinton or read what sheting other people? well, that is the idea of a tumbler account, and the idea was hatched when two d.c. communications specialists caught sight of this photo and got creative. from president obama, hay, hill, what are you doing? her response, running the world. and then condoleezza rice talking to former president bush, i sent her a text saying that i think i left my favorite sun glasses in the desk. and then clinton, sorry, con

dirks i haven't seen them. and then an adaptation from the "mean girls" i'm not a mean girl, i'm a cool mom. and the response, stop talking. that is "hardball." coming up is "your business with j.j. ramburg." over those mashes and dinner is served. four minutes, around four bucks. campbell's chunky -- it's amazing what soup can do. let's see what you got. rv -- covered. why would you pay for a hotel? i never do. motorcycles -- check. atv. i ride those. do you? no. boat. house. hello, dear. hello. hello. oh! check it -- [ loud r&b on car radio ] i'm going on break! the more you bundle, the more you save. now, that's progressive.

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